Modelling forest ruin due to climate hazards

Abstract. Estimating the risk of forest collapse due to extreme climate events is one challenges adapting change. We adapt a concept from ruin theory, which widely used in econometrics and insurance industry, design growth–ruin model for trees accounts hazards that can jeopardize tree growth. This an elaboration classical Cramer–Lundberg industry. The interactions between physiological parameters occurrence hazards. describe interannual growth rates how react hazard probability distributions intensity events. focus on drought–heatwave hazard. goal paper determine dependence average parameters. Using extensive Monte Carlo experiments, we show existence threshold frequency beyond becomes certain occur within centennial horizon. also detect small effect strategies cope with proof quantification under